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Helpful Reply20 Shocking Fantasy Football Predictions?

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Brad Perniciaro
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2015/06/29 20:24:35 (permalink)
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20 Shocking Fantasy Football Predictions?

Here is the full story from Michael Fabiano.  Ok so most of these predictions aren't exactly shocking, but which of these is the most likely and the least likely in your eyes?
 
I think it's very likely that Jeremy Maclin finishes with fewer than 1000 yards.  He was targeted 143 times last season on his way to 1318 yards, but the most targeted wide receiver for the Eagles last season was Dwayne Bowe with only 96 targets, the next most was Albert Wilson with 28.
 
I'm going to call BS on Cooks finishing as a top 10 wide-out.  Yeah they throw the ball a lot in New Orleans, but the Saints are re-committing to the run and Brees just spreads the ball around too much.  
 

C.J. Anderson scored more fantasy points than LeSean McCoy. Golden Tate outscored Calvin Johnson for the season. Antonio Gates finished higher than Jimmy Graham.
 
What are ... "Things that shocked fantasy football owners in 2014?"
 
Correct! Crazy things always happen in the world of NFL statistics, so sometimes you have to think outside the box when you're drafting your fantasy football team. With that said, here are 20 new scenarios that would not shock me if they came to fruition during the 2015 campaign.
 
1) It wouldn't shock me if ... Joseph Randle finishes as a top-10 fantasy runner: Randle has talent and oodles of upside, and that offensive line in Dallas is destined to be one of the best run-blocking units in the league once again. If the planets align and Randle keeps his head on straight, fantasy fans could be looking at one of this year's best draft bargains.
 
2) It wouldn't shock me if ... Ameer Abdullah leads all Lions RBs in fantasy points: The Lions aren't certain that incumbent starter Joique Bell (Achilles, knee) will be ready to roll when training camp opens, so Abdullah could earn a prominent role right out of the gate. Even if Bell were back at 100 percent, I still like Abdullah as a potential fantasy sleeper.
 
3) It wouldn't shock me if ... C.J. Spiller catches 70-plus passes in New Orleans: The Saints lost over 100 backfield targets in the offseason (Pierre Thomas, Travaris Cadet) and traded Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. Enter Spiller, who will be used in a committee with Mark Ingram, but should see a ton of chances as a pass catcher. He's in a terrific spot to succeed.
 
4) It wouldn't shock me if ... Marcus Mariota makes a fantasy impact as a rookie: One of the things I like most about Mariota is his skill as a runner. And when Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt suggested that he could use the rookie like Russell Wilson, the radar in my head went off. Also keep in mind that Mariota rushed for over 2,200 yards and 29 touchdowns at Oregon.
 
5) It wouldn't shock me if ... Brandin Cooks finishes as a top-10 fantasy wideout: All right, a lot of fantasy experts (myself included) loved Cordarrelle Patterson last season. (Yeah, I know he stunk.) But I really love Cooks for 2015. All this talented speedster needs to do is avoid the trainer's room, and the statistical sky is the limit during his second season.
 
6) It wouldn't shock me if ... Duke Johnson leads all Browns RBs in fantasy points: I love Miami (FL) running backs, and I don't see Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West as perennial superstars or locks atop the Browns depth chart. So if Johnson were to overtake them both (as Clinton Portis has predicted), well, he could see a whole lot of chances in a run-based offense.
 
7) It wouldn't shock me if ... DeMarco Murray scores fewer than 200 fantasy points: The top fantasy runner in 2014, Murray scored 294.10 points. Not bad at all, but it took him over 400 touches to reach that total. Now, he's in Philadelphia where his touches will decline with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles in the mix. I'm also concerned that he's destined to break down with an injury after such a heavy workload in 2014.
 
8) It wouldn't shock me if ... Austin Seferian-Jenkins records 60-plus receptions: Seferian-Jenkins didn't do much as a rookie, but that's the case with most first-year tight ends. With one season of NFL experience under his belt and an offense that will be more tight end friendly, well, ASJ should be seen as one of the better deep sleepers in all fantasy drafts.
 
9) It wouldn't shock me if ... Justin Forsett catches 70-plus passes for the Ravens: What do Larry Centers, Charlie Garner, Michael Pittman and Matt Forte all have in common? All three were PPR superstars while playing under Marc Trestman. Now the offensive coordinator in Baltimore, Trestman should utilize the versatile Forsett often as a receiver out of the backfield.
 
10) It wouldn't shock me if ... Matt Forte fails to finish with over 200 fantasy points: Trestman's departure from the Bears is bad news for Forte's value. While I still see him as a first-round pick, the Tulane product seems destined to lose 30-40 fantasy points from a decline in receiving yards alone. He's also pushing 30-years-old, which comes as another concern.
 
11) It wouldn't shock me if ... Carson Palmer finishes as a top-10 fantasy quarterback: You might think I'm nuts, but hear me out. Palmer averaged 0.72 fantasy points per completion last season under the guidance of Arians. That equated to over 17 points per game, which when projected over a full 16 games puts Palmer right in that top 10 mix at the quarterback spot.
 
12) It wouldn't shock me if ... Frank Gore has his best fantasy season since 2009: Gore has proven that being in your 30s isn't always a statistical death sentence for a running back. He's a great fit for the offense in Indianapolis, and playing with Andrew Luck is going to significantly decrease the number of stacked fronts he sees. Gore will be a top-40 overall pick.
 
13) It wouldn't shock me if ... Shane Vereen leads all Giants runners in fantasy points: I like Rashad Jennings, but he's 30 years old and has not been what one would call durable. Enter Vereen, who has been impressive in OTAs and is expected to be more than just a third-down back under offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Cal product could be a nice draft value.
 
14) It wouldn't shock me if ... Allen Robinson finishes with 1,000 yards for the Jaguars: Did you know that the Jaguars haven't had a 1,000-yard wide receiver since 2005? Well, Robinson has a chance to break that trend in his second pro campaign. He has earned rave reviews during offseason workouts and is now the surefire No. 1 option in Jacksonville's pass attack.
 
15) It wouldn't shock me if ... Vernon Davis finishes as a top-10 fantasy tight end: Let's face it ... the tight end position isn't what you would call a strength from a fantasy perspective. Davis, who was a massive disappointment in 2014, could have a rebirth under new tight ends coach Tony Sparano. He has a chance to become a bargain based on his late-round price.
 
16) It wouldn't shock me if ... Cameron Artis-Payne becomes a hot waiver-wire pickup: Jonathan Stewart was awesome in the second half of last season, and the release of DeAngelo Williams makes him a true featured back for 2015. The concern is his durability ... Stewart has averaged just nine games played per season since 2012. That could open the door for rookie runner Artis-Payne.
 
17) It wouldn't shock me if ... John Brown leads Cardinals wideouts in fantasy points: The Cardinals love Brown. No, I mean they really love him. Just ask coach Bruce Arians, who can help smaller wideouts develop into stars. From a fantasy standpoint, Brown could become a nice bargain when you consider he'll be selected after Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.
 
18) It wouldn't shock me if ... Amari Cooper has 80 catches and 1,000 yards in 2015: I doubt we will see the same number of rookie wideouts make a huge impact like we did in 2014, but Cooper is the most likely to thrive in 2015. He's been all the talk in Oakland's OTAs, and the presence of a young quarterback with upside like Derek Carr just helps his overall appeal.
 
19) It wouldn't shock me if ... Jeremy Maclin fails to finish with over 1,000 yards: How's this for a stat ... in 14 seasons with the Eagles, coach Andy Reid's top wideout had fewer than 1,000 yards nine times. In his first two years with the Chiefs, Reid hasn't had a single wideout go over 900 yards. Now you know why I am worried about Maclin's prospects next season.
 
20) It wouldn't shock me if ... Stephen Gostkowski outscores all but two tight ends: You might think this statement sounds insane, but did you know that Gostkowski would have finished second in fantasy points among tight ends in each of the last four years? If there is just one kicker who you should draft before one of the last two rounds, Gostkowski is that kicker.

post edited by Brad Perniciaro - 2015/06/30 20:53:37
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Re: 20 Shocking Fantasy Fooball Predictions? 2015/06/30 19:06:52 (permalink)
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My first instinct was to say there is no way that Palmer finishes in the top 10, but look at my cheat sheet he actually finished 10th overall among QB in fantasy points per game in 2014.  That was unexpected!  Well Payton is 39 so at 35 Palmer still might have something left in the tank.
 
I can certainly see a scenario where DeMarco Murray finishes with fewer than 200 fantasy points, especially with Sproles and Mathews stealing carries.  Still, I may take an early round gamble on him in the hope that Ryan Mathews gets injured. 
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Re: 20 Shocking Fantasy Fooball Predictions? 2015/07/03 05:20:54 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby Brad Perniciaro 2015/07/03 12:02:35
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Least likely: that Randle finishes as a top 10 RB. His sample size from 2014 is way too small for me to feel comfortable taking him where he's rising to in drafts, and that backfield just smacks of RBBC to me.

Most likely: Maclin finishes with less than 1,000 yards. This is a run first offense and Charles and Kelce will vulture what passing yardage there is to be made in KC.
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Re: 20 Shocking Fantasy Fooball Predictions? 2015/07/05 09:31:12 (permalink)
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I have been saying for awhile that it wouldn't shock me to see Duke Johnson come out of the Browns' backfield. Carson Palmer as a top ten isn't exactly a bold prediction based on his play in Arians' offense and the fact they made the playoffs running on fumes at quarterback. 
 
I think the Jaguars find someone to have 1,000 yards receiving I think we are fooling ourselves if we act like we have any idea which of their second year guys it will be. 
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